Portales, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

629
FXUS65 KABQ 102032
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
132 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

 - Warming temperatures will allow for snow melt and improving
   travel conditions. Unpaved roads will remain muddy with high
   water in bar ditches and ponding over water in low lying areas
   possible.

 - Gusty southwesterly winds arrive Tuesday afternoon, reaching 25
   to 35 mph across central and northeastern NM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 129 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

Fairly calm and tranquil weather reigns supreme this week. Minor
exceptions will be the potential for pockets of freezing fog
developing tonight into Monday morning in central and northern
valley locations. Westerly winds also increase Tuesday afternoon,
with peak gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible over the central and
northeastern highlands of NM. After a brief pause in the warming
trend and cool down Tuesday through Wednesday, temperatures rebound
to end the work week. Southwesterly winds increase Friday into next
weekend ahead of the next storm system that could also bring rain
and snow to at least western and central NM next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 129 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

Pockets of isolated freezing fog over parts of central and northern
NM burned off this morning as a ridge of high pressure has built
over the state. Temperatures have rebounded considerably for many
areas, with 50s popping up in Farmington and Albuquerque again, and
60s in the east-central and southeastern plains from Clovis to
Roswell. Temperatures have a harder time warming back up where the
heaviest snowfall remains across parts of central and northern NM.
Places like Santa Fe, Las Vegas, Raton and Taos have struggled to
reach the low 40s. With a ridge of high pressure overhead, clear
skies forecast and calm winds, the potential for freezing fog to
return to some valley locations of central and northern NM remains
tonight through Monday morning.

Monday sees more of the same with calm winds and rebounding
temperatures. The warm up again will be limited where snow remains
on the ground. A plume of high cirrus will also stretch of central
portions of the forecast area, making it less sunny compared to
today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 129 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

Tuesday still features a shortwave trough tracking over northern NM.
This will bring a pause in the warming trend, and an increase in
southwesterly winds across much of the forecast area. With a 997mb
MSLP surface low along the CO Front Range and 35-40kt H7 winds
aloft, gusty conditions can be expected along the central and
northeastern highlands Tuesday afternoon. Peak gusts of 25 to 35 mph
can be expected in this area, potentially a tad stronger. Drier and
colder air fills into the state behind the shortwave trough`s
associated Pacific and backdoor cold fronts. The main temperature
drop will be felt Wednesday when forecast highs fall 5F to 15F from
Tuesday`s forecast.

Temperatures rebound quickly Thursday as a ridge of high of pressure
tries to build back over southeastern NM ahead of the deepening
troughing pattern over the Pacific Coastline. Forecast highs
Thursday rise 5F to 12F from Wednesday`s forecast. Southwesterly
winds are likely to increase in strength Friday in response to the
ridge breaking down southeast of NM and a tightening pressure
gradient over NM.

Extended ensemble runs for next weekend`s more active weather
pattern have trended less amplified with the polar jet pattern over
the western CONUS. The 12Z ECMWF deterministic run still shows a low
closing off over the southwestern CONUS tapping into subtropical
moisture ahead of it`s crossing of NM Sunday. However, scenarios
still range from that to a low closing off well off the Baja Coast
to a progressive pattern that would end being more windy than wet
for NM. Next weekend`s forecast remains in a high state of flux and
uncertainty as a result.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1014 AM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

VFR prevails thru the TAF period with light and variable winds. A
few pockets of freezing fog will be possible again tonight over
portions of central and northern NM, but may not end up at any
terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 129 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

Temperatures rebound thru Monday and Tuesday before a brief pause
and cool down late Tuesday thru Wednesday. Light winds and poor
ventilation will increase Tuesday, as southwesterly winds peak in
strength. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be likely over much of the
forecast area, especially over the central and northeastern
highlands. Winds lessen Thursday as temperatures warm back up, then
increase again out of the west and southwest by Friday. A more
active weather pattern is favored next weekend, bringing increased
winds, cooler temperatures and possible rain and snow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  29  59  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  16  56  18  52 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  24  53  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  20  61  23  55 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  29  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  21  57  23  55 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  27  61  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  33  59  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  30  59  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  25  67  26  64 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  34  70  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  21  51  21  46 /   0   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  32  47  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  30  49  31  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  24  44  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  21  40  22  40 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  10  42  15  45 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  18  43  21  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  23  48  21  51 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  23  51  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  30  48  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  25  50  28  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  36  54  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  31  55  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  27  57  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  32  54  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  23  57  25  63 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  29  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  21  57  23  61 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  28  55  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  23  57  25  62 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  34  52  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  31  54  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  33  61  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  31  49  33  52 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  32  52  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  25  50  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  17  51  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  28  46  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  26  51  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  28  54  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  37  65  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  31  62  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  27  48  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  17  48  19  58 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  12  48  16  60 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  24  50  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  32  54  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  19  50  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  29  60  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  32  61  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  31  62  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  38  67  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  37  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  33  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  38  71  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  37  72  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  35  74  38  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24